New CAE Forecast Underscores AMT Demand Challenge

Training specialist CAE's latest Aviation Talent Forecast underscores familiar themes for the aviation maintenance sector: a lot of experienced technicians are nearing retirement and stakeholders must tap an array of resources to ensure growing demand for new talent is met.

CAE's forecast (https://www.cae.com/2025-aviation-talent-forecast), a 10-year outlook published annually, sees demand for 416,000 mechanics through 2034. The technician need is a subset of demand for 1.5 million new pilots, cabin crew and air traffic controllers as well as maintenance professionals.

The forecast looks at global demand with both commercial and business aviation.

"For maintenance technicians, we based our analysis on scheduled maintenance events for each aircraft considering their usage and age," the forecast says. "This gave us the total number of events, and we then calculated the time required to perform the maintenance tasks and the number of personnel required to complete them."

In commercial aviation, CAE sees demand for 347,000 additional technicians--178,000 to replace current workers projected to retire, and 169,000 to meet anticipated demand. Key assumptions include the commercial fleet growing from 33,000 today to 44,000 in 2034, or 3.3% per year on average. CAE also projects that 83% of today's technician pool of 266,000 will retire in the next decade.

A third of demand for new technicians through 2034 will come from the fast-maturing Asia-Pacific region, which will need 115,000, CAE projects. North America will need 88,000, followed by Europe (85,000), the Middle East (25,000), South America (24,000) and Africa (10,000).

CAE sees overall demand for 69,000 new maintenance professionals in the business aviation segment: 42,000 covering anticipated attrition and 27,000 for projected growth. The global fleet is expected to expand from 23,000 aircraft today to 27,000 in a decade.

Business aviation technician demand skews heavily towards North America, where 66% of the fleet is based. North America will need 44,000 technicians, followed by Europe (9,000), South America (9,000) Asia-Pacific (4,000) Africa (2,000) and the Middle East (1,000).

Meeting demand will require combining multiple strategies--an approach embraced and pursued by the council. Among CAE's general recommendations are tapping advanced technology, such as virtual and augmented reality, in training programs to underscore the industry's progressive approach to talent development. Industry partnerships should be leveraged to connect employers with schools and other training organizations and develop pipelines that help attract prospects, CAE said.

The company also urged industry to boost maintenance-specific scholarships and streamline training requirements.

"While there are a growing number of [technician-focused] scholarships, more are needed to entice people to apply," CAE said. "Additional educational and industry partnerships are also needed to attract the number of candidates needed to meet upcoming demand."

The CAE forecast underscores points made in similar reports, including the Pipeline Report (https://www.atec-amt.org/pipeline-report) and Boeing's annual technician forecast (https://www.atec-amt.org/news/the-2024-boeing-technician-outlook-a-closer-look). CAE's key conclusions align with the council's legislative (https://www.atec-amt.org/legislative-priorities) and regulatory (https://www.atec-amt.org/regulatory-priorities) priorities that include modernizing regulatory training standards, increasing workforce development funding and both promoting and expanding aviation technician career paths.